Of course it’ll be raining. Of course it’s on a Saturday. Why wouldn’t the biggest regular-season game in Levi’s Stadium history be a big, sloppy, Gregorian-challenged mess?
For a venue that has spent much of its existence battling the (just) perception of being a pop-up corporate wine mixer disguised as a football arena, Levi’s Stadium is going to be the place to be on Saturday.
Because this isn’t just a game; this is a Super Bowl undercard.
The stakes for the 49ers and Seahawks on Saturday? Just the NFC West crown and the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC playoffs.
The 49ers, led by their offense, have spent the last six weeks buzzing — a machine-like destruction of opponents that has made Brock Purdy look less like a scrappy underdog and more like the bully, all along.
But with apologies to the Browns, these Niners haven’t seen a defense quite like this during that stretch.
Mike Macdonald’s crew isn’t here to admire the efficiency of Kyle Shanahan’s schemes. No, they’re arriving to re-create the Christmas Day disaster of 2023, when Macdonald’s Baltimore Ravens blitzed, twisted, and spun Purdy into the worst game of his career.
It was raining that day, too.
Purdy is a better quarterback than he was then. These Seahawks aren’t quite at the same level defensively as those Ravens (though it’s been close at times). And, oh yeah, the Seahawks offense and Niners’ defense exist, too. (To say nothing of special teams!)
It’s sloppy, high-stakes; absolutely imperfect in a perfect way.
And here are three things I expect to see on Saturday:
1. Anthony Bradford Is Going to Have a Very Bad Day
Finally, a worthy adversary for this 49ers’ defensive line. And no, that’s not a compliment to the Seahawks.
There was optimism in Seattle that the team’s long-maligned offensive line had taken a step forward in 2025.
And perhaps they did.
They’re still woeful.
Last week, against the only team that produces less quarterback pressure than the 49ers, the Seahawks offensive line allowed Carolina Panthers rusher after rusher into the Seattle backfield.
I can’t believe I’m writing this, but the Niners’ defensive line might just be able to do some work on Saturday.
The key? Beef.
The Seahawks’ offensive line is weak in a grand sense and in a literal one, as they are deeply susceptible to power at the point of attack.
That means the Niners need to put a ton of C.J. West and Alfred Collins on the field. Yetur Gross-Matos’ interior rush ability is now an asset on the outside.
Keion White, who has been quite strong for the Niners since being acquired from the Patriots, is the kind of player who could break this game wide open. He’s questionable to play with a groin injury.
The points of attack? Seattle right guard Anthony Bradford’s facemask and the legs of whoever is playing left tackle, whether it’s second-stringer Josh Jones (questionable for the game with ankle and knee issues), or the newly signed Amari Kight.
If the Niners’ defensive line can’t look competent against this unit, that status isn’t in the cards for them this season.
But if White plays, I’ll bet on competence.
2. The “Play-Action Merchant” Scam Will Be Exposed
The book is out on Seattle offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak.
All the stuff that worked early in the season? Teams know how to slow it down. And Kubiak hasn’t done much to adjust.
This team’s explosive pass rate —once far and away the best in the NFL — has plummeted since Week 11. The incredible Jaxon Smith-Njigba has only four catches on deep balls (20-plus air yards) in that same timeframe.
According to FieldGulls.com, the Seahawks are 29th in expected points added in the first half since Week 12, with a 31st-ranked touchdown rate.
This is a team that cannot move the ball, and it’s pretty easy to see why:
The Seahawks want to run a basic Kubiak offense, relying heavily on play-action to protect a quarterback who, frankly, isn’t very good at drop-back passing.
But here’s the problem: you can’t run play-action if you can’t run the ball, and the Seahawks running game is a mess of horizontal nonsense.
Kenneth Walker III is a talented back, but he seems to hate running downhill; he’d rather run sideways until he hits the sideline.
Because of that, the 49ers don’t have to bite on the play-fakes.
And if you don’t bite on San Darnold’s play-fakes, making him a true drop-back passer, he’s one of the worst in the NFL.
Darnold is No. 1 in the NFL in EPA per dropback on play-action passes this season. He’s 23rd (-0.08 EPA) without play-action, throwing 11 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, with 20 sacks.
He’s basically Marcus Mariota without the play-fake.
And that would be okay for Seattle if Darnold were the kind of quarterback who took checkdowns, controlled the ball, and let his defense do its work to win the game.
Instead, he is the kind of quarterback who, after three or four plays, decides that he is, in fact, the greatest thrower of a football who has ever lived.
There’s no throw he won’t try. Cross-body, on-the-run, 25-yard outs? He’ll go for it. And while he might nail one or two, it only serves to inflate his confidence further. That’s a good thing for the defense.
It’s equivalent to having Draymond Green make an early 3-pointer.
You want him shooting that shot if you’re a defense, so the best thing that can happen early in a game is him thinking he can make that shot.
I’m not naive. All of this could legitimately be moot against this 49ers’ defense, which can be gashed at all three levels.
But if the Niners sit back, ignore the eye candy, and make the Seahawks’ quarterback break down zone after zone, he’s liable to fall face-first into the turf all on his own.
He’s a play-action merchant, and the Niners don’t need to help him out.
3. The “Black Uniform” Curse vs. The Vinovich Factor
These 49ers are voodoo, so it seems appropriate we have two dark forces facing off on Saturday.
No, not Seattle and San Francisco:
It’s referee Bill Vinovich — you might remember him from the 49ers’ recent Super Bowl losses — and the Niners’ new all-black uniforms.
Now Vinovich is as good as it gets amid the somewhat dire NFL refereeing situation. His presence in this game symbolizes how big it is. (You know what would have really shown that? Playing on Sunday.)
Vinovich’s crew historically wants to let teams play. That said, they will call offensive Pass Interference and blocks in the back, which should prove problematic for the Seahawks’ receiving corps, particularly in the red zone. That should be a win for the 49ers.
But then, the 49ers decided to tempt fate by wearing those ridiculous black uniforms. It’s bad juju, plain and simple.
So which wins out: white-and-black or black all over?
I say the 49ers pull this out because they have the better quarterback and offensive line (yes, even without Trent Williams).
The Seattle defense is great, but nothing beats a great quarterback in 2026. I’ll bet Purdy leaves zero doubt he’s just that Saturday.
FINAL SCORE: 49ers 27, Seahawks 23
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