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In today’s edition, Steve Kornacki looks ahead to the next special House election on the calendar. Plus, our Capitol Hill team reports on the resignations of two members of Congress.
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— Adam Wollner
Democrats aim to keep their special election success going in New Jersey
Analysis by Steve Kornacki
Thursday will bring another special House election, this time in New Jersey’s 11th District. And unless there’s an abrupt break from what has become the norm in President Donald Trump’s second term, Democrats will win by a very wide margin.
Even in a neutral environment, the seat that was held by Gov. Mikie Sherrill would be expected to remain in Democratic hands. The district, which spans the suburbs of Morris and west Essex counties, voted for Kamala Harris by 9 points.
But lately, the environment has been anything but neutral. In every single special House election since Trump’s return to the White House, Democrats have posted substantial net-improvements compared with the 2024 White House result.
In six specials, the smallest Democratic overperformance compared with 2024 has been 13 points, while the biggest was 25. The average has been 18 points. If form holds, it would mean that New Jersey’s 11th District will produce a landslide for the Democratic candidate, Analilia Mejia, of somewhere around 30 points.
The question is what — if anything — these strong Democratic showings could mean for the November general election.
The case for skepticism rests on differential turnout patterns between the two parties’ coalitions. Polling indicates (and precinct-level results tend to confirm) that the college-educated portion of the Democratic base is exceptionally animated and eager to participate in any and every election, viewing each as an opportunity to register its opposition to Trump and his party. The GOP base, by contrast, lacks similar activation, especially when it comes to the infrequent voters who turned out for Trump in 2024. In a special election with otherwise low turnout, this kind of imbalance can exert a significant distorting effect.
It’s also a phenomenon that pre-dates Trump’s second term. Even when Joe Biden was in the White House, and when the political environment was more hostile to Democrats because of his unpopularity, Democrats still posted some dramatic overperformances in special House elections. For instance, in a June 2024 special election in Ohio, Democrats came within 9 points of victory in a district that Trump had carried by 29 points. At the time, Democrats claimed it was a sign of strength heading into November. But when Trump ended up winning, the Ohio result came to look like a red herring.
A more apt comparison is probably Trump’s first term and the run-up to the 2018 midterm elections. During that period, there were eight special House elections, although one of them, in Utah’s 3rd District, featured a sizable third-party vote. If we consider just the seven from that period that were pure Democrat-versus-Republican contests, the average Democratic overperformance compared with the previous presidential race was 13 points.
Except for the special election in Georgia’s 6th District in June 2017, those results are largely consistent with what we are seeing now. The problem for Republicans, though, is that Democrats gained 40 House seats and flipped the chamber in 2018. It’s possible that the 2017 and 2018 special elections were mainly the product of a disproportionately motivated Democratic base. But even if that was the case, Trump’s low approval rating and an unfavorable political landscape weighed Republicans down in November.
Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales officially resign amid misconduct claims
By Scott Wong, Kyle Stewart and Lizzie Jensen
Reps. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., and Tony Gonzales, R-Texas, resigned from Congress in disgrace today, pre-empting a push by their House colleagues to expel them from office.
Both lawmakers were facing unrelated House Ethics Committee investigations into alleged sexual misconduct, in some cases with women who had worked for them, a violation of House rules. Their resignations mean that those investigations effectively come to an end, since the committee only has jurisdiction over sitting members of Congress.
Investigations by law enforcement agencies can continue; the Manhattan district attorney’s office has said it has launched a probe into Swalwell focused on an alleged assault in New York.
Today, another woman alleged that Swalwell drugged, raped and choked her in a California hotel room in 2018. Her lawyers said she was going to report the incident to law enforcement later in the day.
“Congressman Eric Swalwell categorically and unequivocally denies each and every allegation of sexual misconduct and assault that has been leveled against him,” his lawyer, Sara Azari, said in a statement.
“These accusations are false, fabricated, and deeply offensive — a calculated and transparent political hit job designed to destroy the reputation of a man who has spent twenty years in public service,” Azari said.
“We are confident that the truth will prevail, and we will pursue every available legal remedy against those responsible for orchestrating this reprehensible campaign of lies,” Azari continued.
Swalwell previously apologized for making “mistakes” but called allegations of sexual assault “false.”
With Swalwell and Gonzales gone, Republicans will have a 216-213 majority over the Democrats. However, Republicans will gain one seat tonight, when Clay Fuller of Georgia is sworn in to succeed former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who resigned earlier this year.
Read more →
Related: Swalwell’s decision to end his campaign for California governor has further scrambled what was already a crowded and unsettled contest, Adam Edelman reports.
🗞️ Today’s other top stories
- 📺 NBC News interview: Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said that Americans should be “happy” Trump is deeply involved with the Justice Department. Read more →
- ➡️ Iran war: A new round of in-person talks between the U.S. and Iran could be held as early as this week, according to two people familiar with the ongoing negotiations. Read more →
- 🔵 Race for the House: Olivia Troye, a former adviser to Vice President Mike Pence who left the White House in 2020 and became a vocal Trump critic, announced that she’s running for Congress in Virginia as a Democrat. Read more →
- 💲 Crypto crunch: Justin Sun, one of the most prominent investors in the Trump family’s crypto company, is now criticizing a system that grants company officials unilateral power over user accounts. Read more →
That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Owen Auston-Babcock.
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