The special election on redistricting has been certified. The closely watched decisions from former Vice President Kamala Harris and U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla have been made.
Does that mean the race for California’s next governor — with its primary just six months away — is ready to heat up?
It’s been a rather lackluster campaign thus far. One that, while it certainly is not wanting for candidates, has lacked a certain excitement.
That’s in part due to the Proposition 50 special election that stole the political attention in the latter part of 2025. But a missing star power in the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom has also contributed to what political experts have considered to be a relatively dull gubernatorial campaign.
“It’s an open race,” said Matt Lesenyie, who teaches political science at Cal State Long Beach. “No big splashes so far.”
Already, as 2025 comes to a close, a few of the crowded field of Democratic contenders to succeed Newsom have begun to drop out of the race.
Those left include former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond and former State Controller Betty Yee, all of whom have experience in California’s executive branch.
There’s former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who once served as an advisor to Newsom, and billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer, whose money will enable him to put his face and name before voters, perhaps a bit more easily.
And then there are Rep. Eric Swalwell and former Rep. Katie Porter, both bringing congressional expertise to the race as well as an affinity for cable television appearances.
As for the Republicans, both Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News host Steve Hilton have found a path toward the top of recent polls — polls that, notably, show the undecided category still the most popular choice for those surveyed.
There’s also the possibility that Attorney General Rob Bonta or billionaire businessman Rick Caruso could jump into the fray as well. And while their presence certainly wouldn’t shake up the campaign with the same weight that Harris or Padilla would have, politicos watching California’s gubernatorial race believe they could still make some difference.
So no, the race for California governor isn’t lonely. Just lackluster — and that is odd.
“What’s notable about this race is how extraordinarily unsettled it is,” said Dan Schnur, who teaches political messaging at USC and UC Berkeley.
“There hasn’t been a campaign for California governor in modern political history that has been so open-ended at this stage,” Schnur said.
Sen. Tony Strickland, R-Huntington Beach, agrees.
“This is the first time I can recall that there’s not a clear-cut frontrunner,” Strickland said.
How will that change in 2026?
Lesenyie expects the field to winnow a bit more: “Campaigns are expensive, poll results and donor energy will dictate these withdrawals.”
He also believes cost of living will be the issue that really drives the campaign in 2026.
“In the 2022 gubernatorial … this manifested as a ‘homelessness crisis,’ which is true, but retrospectively is also a proxy for cost of living,” Lesenyie said. “I’d expect the issue framing to tie to retail goods, rent and housing stock.”
Strickland, meanwhile, said candidates on either side of the aisle who focus on affordability and public safety could set themselves apart. And for him, that also means looking critically at the money California is spending on certain projects, like the high-speed rail project that was billed, years ago, as a train that would quickly connect Los Angeles, the Central Valley, San Francisco and other communities.
Given, in particular, the lack of a strong frontrunner on the Democratic side at this point in the race, Strickland sees the possibility for a Republican to make it through the June primary.
That’s not unheard of in modern elections in a California where the latest data shows 44.93% of voters are registered Democrats, while only 25.22% are Republicans and 22.6% are no party preference. In the race for an open U.S. Senate seat in California in 2024, Republican Steve Garvey advanced to the general election with then-Rep. Adam Schiff, a Democrat who ultimately won in a landslide.
“I’ve always said the Democrats have to make some mistakes and a Republican has to run a perfect campaign,” Strickland, who has endorsed Hilton for governor, said. “But I don’t think it’s as insurmountable as other people say.”
But Stephen Cloobeck, a businessman who was running for California governor but ended his campaign in November, said the recent redistricting campaign foreshadows that it will be a Democrat who prevails in the race, despite the uncertainty now.
Statewide, 64.4% of those who voted in the special election agreed to Proposition 50, the redistricting proposal backed by Newsom and other Democrats who marketed it as a referendum on President Donald Trump and his efforts to shore up more congressional seats for Republicans in the 2026 midterms. Only 35.6% of the 11.5 million people who cast ballots opposed redistricting.
“If you do the math, it’s undeniable,” said Cloobeck, who is backing Swalwell in the race. “Trump can’t spend enough money in California to elect a Republican governor. It can’t happen.”
In the meantime, Schnur, who has worked on multiple presidential and gubernatorial campaigns, likens the current field of chief executive hopefuls to “a political moshpit.”
“There are too many candidates to keep track of, and they’re all trying to climb over each other and just keep getting pulled back down with the rest of them,” he said.
“Once we move into the election year on the calendar, it becomes slightly easier to get the voters’ attention, but there is no guarantee with all this multi-candidate infighting all the way through the primary.”
In other words, the race for California governor is still very much unsettled.
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