Widespread showers across the Bay Area on Wednesday are expected to taper off Thursday before light rain Friday morning heralds the arrival of an atmospheric river Friday afternoon.
“It looks like it’s going to be rainy for pretty much the next week,” National Weather Service meteorologist Rachel Kennedy said Wednesday morning. “You’ll probably have periods where it is a little bit less dreary and have some sun coming out. It’s going to be largely rain, though.”
Most of the Bay Area will likely receive a total of two to three inches of rain through Tuesday, with six to eight inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains and North Bay mountains, Kennedy said.
Scattered showers are expected through New Year’s Eve into early New Year’s Day.
After light rain resumes Friday morning, “we’ll start to see a more typical atmospheric river start to take shape,” Kennedy said, describing a type of moisture-laden storm that flows through the sky carrying heavy volumes of water.
That storm is expected to hit the Bay Area on Friday afternoon and deliver moderate to heavy rain through the weekend, with 1 to 2 inches by Sunday around 10 p.m., and up to 3 1/2 inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains and up to 5 inches in higher elevations of the North Bay, she said.
Wind gusts could reach up to 35 mph in the Bay Area and 40 mph along the coast, with blasts of up to 50 mph possible through the Altamont Pass on I-580 east of Livermore.
Additional unsettled weather will probably continue into early next week, Kennedy said.
Daytime temperatures in San Jose are expected to peak around 60 degrees Wednesday through Saturday, dropping Sunday and Monday into the mid-50s. Oakland should warm up from an expected high of 55 degrees Wednesday to the high 50s through Saturday before dropping into the mid-50s Saturday and Sunday.
In the Sierra, forecasters anticipate 1 to 3 inches of new snow at 7,000 feet of elevation by Friday morning. Then the storm is expected to start dropping a lot more flakes onto mountain highways and roads Friday afternoon, with heavier snow beginning around 10 p.m. and continuing through early Tuesday morning, National Weather Service meteorologist Jeffery Wood said Wednesday.
Wood said people traveling between the Bay Area and Lake Tahoe from Friday night into Tuesday morning could expect “significant travel impacts” including tire-chain controls, possible road closures, vehicle spinouts and periodic white-out conditions.
“I’d try to stay off the roads during the weekend,” Wood said, adding that the weather service’s winter storm watch running from Friday afternoon until Sunday morning is likely to be extended.
Along I-80, Soda Springs and Kingvale near Donner Summit are expected to receive 1 to 3 feet of snow from Friday night into Tuesday morning. Along Highway 50, Twin Bridges near Strawberry will likely get 1 to 2 feet, Wood said.
Snow levels are expected to range from 6,000 to 7,000 feet from Friday afternoon into Sunday, dropping to 5,500 to 6,500 feet by Monday morning, then lowering again by Tuesday morning to 5,000 to 6,000 feet, he said.
Anyone planning to visit Lake Tahoe for the weekend should try to get there before Friday night, Wood advised. Still, with snow expected through Tuesday morning, those who make it up in vehicles not geared up or suitable for the conditions “run the risk of being snowed in,” he said.
Traffic in and around the Bay Area should not be as bad as on the holiday-season peak that usually occurs Dec. 26, said AAA Mountain West spokesman Doug Johnson.
“Most people have already returned form their Christmas travels,” Johnson said.
The worst congestion is likely to occur Wednesday night, “because everyone’s trying to get to their New Year’s Eve celebrations,” Johnson said. He added that the festive night can mean danger on the roads from impaired drivers, and that nationwide, impaired driving has leapt 22% since 2019.
“I don’t know if New Year’s Day is going to be all that busy, though, because it is a holiday, a lot of people are going to be off work, and they have a lot of football to watch,” Johnson said.
Meanwhile, cozying up to a fire New Year’s Day in the Bay Area, indoors or out, will be illegal, as the Bay Area Air District issued a Spare the Air alert for Thursday. The agency cited unhealthy levels of fine particulates expected to be in the air, mostly from woodsmoke.
The weekend’s storm will further bolster California’s water supplies. As of Wednesday, state data showed reservoirs were already fuller than historical averages to date, with San Luis Reservoir east of Gilroy at 110% of the average, Shasta Lake near Redding at 123%, Folsom Lake near Sacramento at 136%, and Don Pedro Reservoir east of Modesto at 112%.
As of Wednesday afternoon, snow depth around Lake Tahoe varied from about 22 inches at the north end of the lake to 26 inches at the south end, to nearly 5 feet at the Mount Rose ski area above Reno, state data show.
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