Inflation surged in March after an oil shock triggered by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, government data showed on Friday. The inflation report matched economists’ expectations.
Prices rose 3.3% in March compared to a year earlier, marking a steep rise from a year-over-year inflation rate of 2.4% in the prior month. Annual inflation jumped to its highest level in two years, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showed.
The jump in prices owed in large part to a sharp rise in costs for products impacted by the oil shortage. Gasoline prices were 25% higher in March than February, the BLS report said. Overall, energy prices jumped almost 12% from a month earlier.
Airline fares increased 3.4% in March from February, the data showed.
The rapid acceleration of price increases could complicate interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve, which may be reluctant to lower borrowing costs as inflation climbs.
The Middle East conflict prompted Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of the global supply of oil and natural gas.
That energy shortage sent oil and gasoline prices surging worldwide. Gasoline prices in the U.S. stood at $4.15 on average per gallon on Friday, marking a leap of $1.17 since the start of the war, AAA data showed.
The BLS collected price data over the entire month of March. The inflation report, in turn, reflected prices for 31 of the first 32 days of war, excluding the outbreak of hostilities on Feb. 28. The ceasefire announced on Tuesday came after 40 days of fighting.
A view of the vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz following the two-week temporary ceasefire reached between the United States and Iran on the condition that the strait be reopened, seen in Oman, April 8, 2026.
Anadolu via Getty Images
As part of a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire announced on Tuesday, Iran says it will allow tankers passage through the Strait of Hormuz as long as they coordinate with the nation’s military.
The resumption of tanker traffic remains uncertain, however. Tanker traffic was suspended on Wednesday after Israeli attacks on Lebanon, Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency reported.
Crude prices fell after the ceasefire announcement but remained highly elevated. U.S. oil prices topped $98 a barrel as of Thursday, standing nearly 50% higher than their pre-war level.
A surge in consumer prices could pose difficulty for the Fed as it weathers a slowdown of economic performance over recent months.
If the Fed opts to lower borrowing costs, it could spur growth but risk higher inflation. On the other hand, the choice to raise interest rates may slow price increases but raises the likelihood of a cooldown in economic performance.
A woman checks gas prices before she fills up her vehicle’s tank at a gas station, in Morton Grove, Ill., on April 7, 2026.
Nam Y. Huh/AP
Last month, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that despite rising energy prices and the potential impact on inflation, he doesn’t think the central bank needs to raise interest rates.
Powell noted that central bankers often look past shocks — such as sudden oil-price increases — since the upward pressure on consumer prices usually proves temporary.
“We feel like our policy is in a good place for us to wait and see how that turns out,” Powell said.
The benchmark interest rate stands at a level between 3.5% and 3.75%. That figure marks a significant drop from a recent peak attained in 2023, but borrowing costs remain well above a 0% rate established at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Fed will announce its next rate decision on April 29. Investors overwhelmingly expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
The tool pegs a roughly 70% chance that the Fed will maintain interest rates at current levels for the remainder of the year.
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