SCOTTSDALE — The Giants’ offseason strategy for acquiring starting pitching was hardly a secret.
Back in November, chairman Greg Johnson told The San Francisco Standard that the team would be “cautious” about signing the top free-agent starting pitchers to long-term, big-money contracts. The front office didn’t deviate from that script.
That meant no Framber Valdez, who signed a three-year, $115 million contract with the Detroit Tigers. That meant no Dylan Cease, who went to the Blue Jays for $210 million over seven years. That meant no Ranger Suárez, who joins the Boston Red Sox on a five-year, $130 million pact. The Giants even stayed away from the next tier of pitchers, such as Tatsuya Imai, Michael King, and Merrill Kelly.
Instead, they went bargain hunting.
Adrian Houser found two ticks of velocity and put together a career year. For that, San Francisco rewarded him with $22 million over two years (with a club option). Tyler Mahle had his first reasonably healthy season since 2022 and, despite some odd underlying metrics, prevented runs. His efforts netted him a one-year, $10 million contract.
Houser and Mahle complete a rotation featuring Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and Landen Roupp. Even after trading Kai-Wei Teng to the Houston Astros, the Giants have a bevy of young starters in Hayden Birdsong, Blade Tidwell, Carson Whisenhunt and Trevor McDonald.
It’s a rotation with upside. It’s also a rotation with plenty of question marks.
Additions: Adrian Houser, Tyler Mahle
Subtractions: Justin Verlander (FA), Kai-Wei Teng (Trade)
Projected Position WAR Ranking: 22nd
Those question marks begin at the very top.
Webb, 29, is in his prime. He’s a two-time All-Star (and one-time Gold Glove Award winner) coming off a season where he led the majors in innings (207) and the National League in strikeouts (224). He projects to deliver another excellent season, one where he puts up about 200 innings with an ERA just above 3.
The concern with Webb isn’t ability, but the weeks leading up to the season.
Webb will play for Team USA in the upcoming World Baseball Classic, an opportunity he didn’t have in 2023. The potential issue with Webb’s participation isn’t the innings, but the intensity.
In Cactus League play, the games are about preparation. In the WBC, the games are about winning. Instead of pitching in a no-stakes environment, Webb will pitch in front of packed stadiums with a championship on the line. And given the composition of the rotation, the Giants cannot afford Webb to miss any extended time due to injury.
It’s impossible to know how the WBC affects Webb until the season plays out. This much is true: When Webb takes the mound, the Giants’ front office will watch with held breaths.
After Webb, the certainty in the rotation drops off in a hurry.
Ray, 34, enjoyed a resurgent year in his first full season since 2022, earning his second All-Star selection and finishing with a 3.65 ERA over 182 1/3 innings with 186 strikeouts. Despite an overall solid season, Ray appeared to run out of steam after the All-Star break:
1st half: 20 starts, 9-3, 2.65 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 119 innings, 128 strikeouts
2nd half: 12 starts, 2-5, 5.54 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 63 1/3 innings, 58 strikeouts
Ray’s stuff remained roughly the same, but his location was noticeably worse in the second half. His walk rate jumped from 9.2 percent in the first half to 10.3 percent in the second half, and he didn’t get as many swinging strikes (13.1 percent to 11.6 percent).
The left-hander’s increased workload was likely a culprit. In 2023 and ‘24, Ray threw 63 1/3 innings in the majors and minors after undergoing Tommy John surgery and a flexor tendon. Last season, Ray’s 182 1/3 innings were the third-most he has thrown in a single year.
The final incumbent of this rotation is Landen Roupp, who pitched better than his 3.80 ERA and 3.91 FIP suggest.
Roupp won the fifth rotation spot out of camp, pitched well to begin the season, then got absolutely shelled at Dodger Stadium on June 8. Following that beatdown, Roupp allowed just four earned runs over his next six starts, easily the best stretch of his major-league career.
Then, the injuries. He hit the injured list with right elbow inflammation, returned a couple of weeks later, then hit the shelf again due to a freak play against the Padres when he tweaked his knee. Still, Roupp did enough to secure his spot in this year’s rotation even without pitching in September.
Roupp, like Ray, is headed for a workload increase, albeit not as drastic. Roupp has only crossed the 100-inning threshold twice: 2022 (107 1/3) and ‘25 (109 2/3, which includes a minor-league rehab outing). How will Roupp fare as the dog days approach and his innings count climbs well above 100?
San Francisco’s final two spots go to Houser and Mahle, a pair of right-handers in their 30s who raise the rotation’s floor.
The 33-year-old Houser rediscovered about two mph of fastball velocity last season and dominated with the White Sox (2.10 ERA, 10 starts) before being traded to the Rays. Houser couldn’t replicate what he did for Chicago, posting a 4.79 ERA over 10 starts with Tampa Bay. After bouncing from team to team for years, Houser parlayed last season into the largest contract of his career.
The 31-year-old Mahle broke through in 2021 (3.75 ERA, 180 innings) but dealt with injuries over the next three seasons. After throwing 120 innings in ‘22, he was limited to 38 1/3 combined frames in ‘23 and ‘24. He only threw 86 2/3 innings last year for the Bruce Bochy-led Texas Rangers, but he had a 2.18 ERA (3.37 FIP).
As important as the starting five are Birdsong, McDonald, Tidwell and Whisenhunt, the young starters awaiting their turns. Of that quartet, the most intriguing is Birdsong, who will be one of the most closely examined players this spring.
The 24-year-old had a confounding sophomore season. He dealt with control problems as a rookie in 2024, but didn’t walk a single batter over 12 innings last spring and earned a spot on the Opening Day roster as a reliever. He pitched well in relief (2.31 ERA) and earned a spot in the rotation, where he had a 3.99 ERA (3.10 FIP) over his first six starts.
Then, control mysteriously disappeared. The walks piled up. It culminated in an outing against the Atlanta Braves where he didn’t retire any of the six batters he faced, walking four of them. He was optioned to Triple-A Sacramento in late July and never returned.
So, which version of Birdsong do the Giants get in 2026? The one who limited walks and dazzled? Or, the one who couldn’t command and struggled? If it’s the latter, do the Giants convert him into a reliever and help the bullpen?
The Giants didn’t defy the expectations they had this offseason. As planned, they stuck to their self-imposed budget measures and eschewed the top free-agent starting pitchers of this year’s class. Now, they’re banking on a rotation that lacks certainty — and high-end upside.
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