Here’s some modest relief for California house hunters: values were falling in 88% of the state as 2025 ended.
To get a local sense of where prices are going, my trusty spreadsheet reviewed home value data from Zillow for 125 of the nation’s largest metropolitan areas, including 16 from California.
In the 12 months ended in December, values were down in 14 of the 16 California metros. But savings were meek, with the largest dip found in Stockton, off only 4% last year vs up 2% in 2024 and 36% over the previous four years.
But seeing declines is noteworthy because, as recently as March 2025, no California metro had falling prices. That was the end of a 14-month streak without any year-over-year decreases.
The late 2025 slips are a reminder that home prices don’t always rise. Zillow values in the 16 California metros combined have dropped year over year in 26% of months since 2000, mostly surrounding the Great Recession.
Compare that to the nation. In the 109 larger metros outside of California, just 39 had price declines – that’s just 36%.
But that, too, is above the national norm. Since 2000, those non-California metros have had declines 22% of the time.
Pricing also looked weak using Zillow’s statewide index, which fell 2% last year, vs. rising 3% in 2024 and 38% during the previous four years.
Nationally, prices were essentially flat last year vs. gains of 3% in 2024 and 43% in 2020-2023.
California’s declines can be more properties for sale, nudging sellers to compete on price, and a wobbly economy scaring off some potential buyers.
The year-end soft pricing — on top of mortgage rates at roughly three-year lows — offers a dash of hope for budget-strapped house hunters as 2026 begins.
Who’s up?
California’s two price gainers as of December 2025 were:
Visalia: Off 1% last year vs up 4% in 2024 and 42% previous four years.
Fresno: Off 0.2% last year vs up 4% in 2024 and 41% previous four years.
Who’s down?
The other metros, ranked by their 2025 dip …
Vallejo: Off 3% last year vs. up 1% in 2024 and 28% previous four years.
Santa Rosa: Off 3% last year vs. up 1% in 2024 and 21% previous four years.
San Francisco: Off 3% last year vs. up 2% in 2024 and 21% previous four years.
Inland Empire: Off 2% last year vs up 3% in 2024 and 49% previous four years.
San Diego: Off 2% last year vs up 4% in 2024 and 51% previous four years.
Sacramento: Off 2% last year vs up 2% in 2024 and 32% previous four years.
Salinas: Off 2% last year vs up 3% in 2024 and 41% previous four years.
San Jose: Off 2% last year vs up 8% in 2024 and 36% previous four years.
Los Angeles-Orange County: Off 1% last year vs up 4% in 2024 and 39% previous four years.
Ventura County: Off 1% last year vs up 4% in 2024 and 37% previous four years.
Modesto: Off 1% last year vs up 3% in 2024 and 38% previous four years.
Bakersfield: Off 0.2% last year vs up 5% in 2024 and 47% previous four years.
Santa Maria/Santa Barbara: Off 0.1% last year vs up 3% in 2024 and 56% previous four years.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
Leave a Reply