For the last year, as the array of announced and potential candidates for governor constantly fluctuated, those who closely follow California politics have waited for the field to stabilize and for independent polling to reveal who really has a chance to win.
We finally have the cast of characters — nine Democrats and two Republicans — and on Wednesday we also got a poll by the Public Policy Institute of California that divides it into five whose support ranges from 10% to 14% and six who languish, at least so far, in the single digits.
However, the PPIC poll fails to reveal clear frontrunners for the two candidates who will emerge from the June primary election as rivals in the November runoff election, and its timing may cloud the picture even more.
PPIC began polling on Feb. 3, just five days after the final Democratic candidate, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, joined the field, so he was relegated to the bottom tier even though he is expected to become a major contender, with lavish financial backing from Silicon Valley’s tech tycoons. One can assume that Mahan had financial assurances before entering the race.
Moreover, two of the five double-digit candidates are Republicans — former television commentator Steve Hilton, who tops the field at 14%, and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco (12%) — even though it’s virtually impossible for a Republican to win the governorship in a face-to-face duel with a Democrat, given the party’s very weak voter registration.
It does, however, fuel worries among some Democratic leaders that if all nine Democrats continue in the race, they could fragment their party’s vote so much that Hilton and Bianco could finish one-two in June, giving the state a GOP governor. It’s a remote possibility, but it’s at least theoretically possible.
Katie Porter, a former member of Congress who ran for the U.S. Senate in 2024 but didn’t survive the top-two primary that year, is the PPIC poll’s highest ranked Democrat at 13%, probably reflecting the name identification she achieved in the Senate race.
Congressman Eric Swalwell (11%) and billionaire Tom Steyer, who’s been saturating television and the internet with ads but garners just 10% support, round out the top five.
The bottom six — Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former state Controller Betty Yee, state schools Superintendent Tony Thurmond, former Attorney General Xavier Becerra and former Assemblyman Ian Calderon — divvy up 30% of voters in the PPIC poll. And 10% were unable to make a choice.
With the primary election just a little over three months away and no true frontrunner — a very unusual scenario, given the state’s political history — the next phase will occur behind closed doors as the wealthy individuals, unions and other interest groups that finance Democratic politicians decide who to favor.
Campaigning in California, with its many millions of voters, is a very expensive activity, and all candidates except Steyer must rely on the financiers setting up a shadow election in which a very few moneyed interests will cast the votes.
It can be assumed that Mahan will have all the money he needs to wage a credible campaign, but the other five single-digit candidates will be hard-pressed to continue their campaigns if they lose the shadow election.
Democratic leaders who worry about the two Republicans finishing one-two in the primary also will be pressuring the five at the bottom to drop out, so that the party’s voters can coalesce around the few at the top.
Simply put, it’s crunch time for the also-rans to either demonstrate their potential to climb into the upper ranks, thus getting enough money to continue the campaign, or fold their tents.
Dan Walters is a CalMatters columnist.
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